The country is hard. Everywhere you turn you can feel it. The two economic decisions taken by the president, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, after he was inaugurated two years ago, have made things difficult. The removal of petroleum subsidy, which we all agreed was a huge scam, and the eradication of the dual exchange rate, have led to massive devaluation of the naira. The knock-on effects of these economic decisions include increased inflation and naira devaluation.
While I acknowledge that things are difficult, those decisions are necessary. Obviously, Nigeria had been living on borrowed times with loans and ways and means. When you print trillions of naira in ways and means it is a recipe for disaster. Governments before Tinubu have been kicking the can down the road and it was just a matter of time for things to catch up with us. The economy was being run especially with ways and means that was simply not sustainable. A bold decision was needed to halt the slides and we have to applaud Tinubu for having the courage to rise to the occasion.
These decisions, however, were bitter pills for Nigerians to swallow. The economy is stabilizing but it is yet to translate to better living for the people. One thing I’m sure of, however, is that Tinubu would come good. His experience when he was governor of Lagos State validates my assurance.
When Tinubu became governor of Lagos State in 1999, things were initially like this. Things were difficult and people were complaining. Some of us who served in his inauguration committee were mocked by friends telling us that our man was not performing. It got to a point that I felt I had to let them know what people were saying. So I decided to visit Mr. Dele Alake who was then the commissioner of information and strategy and a close ally of the governor.
As fate would have it, Babafemi Ojudu also came to see Dele Alake on the same issue. Dele Alake took time to explain to us what the government was putting in place promising that soon people of Lagos would feel it. That exactly was what happened. By the time Governor Tinubu was nearing the end of his first term, things had changed for the better. Developments in every sector were glaring for everybody to see. By the time he ran for reelection, it was easy to sell his candidature. I was again privileged to be the chairman of the media committee for his reelection.
I recall that the Afenifere elders went into a pact with the Obasanjo-led PDP administration for the 2003 election. Tinubu saw through the deceit and warned the elders not to have anything to do with Obasanjo. The elders not only refused to listen to him, they openly endorsed all other Alliance for Democracy (AD) governors except Tinubu. Yet he won his reelection as the only AD governor who survived the PDP tsunami. That experience in Lagos convinced me that Tinubu would do well. As we approach 2027, I’m convinced that things will get better. Can Tinubu be stopped by the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition being put up against his reelection by Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi and Peter Obi? I don’t think so. ADC is a motley of strange bedfellows that cannot win election in 2027. For the opposition to stand a chance against Tinubu, all of them must coalesce in one political party. They must be ready to forgo their individual ambitions and pull resources together to face Tinubu at the polls. That is the only way they stand a chance. The way things are presently constituted, they are just wasting their time.
The way ADC is structured or packaged now, if there’s a primary, Atiku would win it. But Atiku would find it difficult to win a presidential election. 2023 was his best chance and he missed it. Everything was made easy for him. The ruling APC did not want their candidate to be president. Many people in the presidential villa and the government were closet supporters of Atiku. To stop Tinubu, obstacles were put in his way by the government of his political party. There was scarcity of fuel which brought great hardship on the people. That was even minor compared to the naira scarcity. The ‘no cash’ agenda brought so much hardship that people were expected to rise against the Tinubu candidature. Yet he survived it. Because of Peter Obi’s emergence as the candidate of the Labour Party, Atiku could only come second. Atiku’s opportunity to become Nigeria’s president, to me, went with the 2023 election.
Peter Obi who performed very well in 2023 may also have missed his opportunity. It would be difficult for him to get the ticket in ADC. There is no way he can win the presidential primaries. Already, he’s being wooed by the PDP to become its presidential candidate. PDP, despite its challenges, is still a very strong platform. But it would be difficult for Obi to win the primaries in PDP.
There are two tendencies in PDP that would not help an Obi candidature. The minister of FCT, Nyesom Wike, has a firm grip on the structure of the party, currently. It would be difficult for anyone to be anything in the party without Wike’s support, and the minister is not hiding his support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The second group is the Governors’ Forum within PDP. They are determined that the presidential candidate of the party must come from within their ranks. Now that PDP may zone the 2027 presidency to the South, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State is their preferred candidate, with Governor Bala Muhammed of Bauchi State as his running mate.
The rumour making the rounds is that Governor Makinde is reluctant to run against President Tinubu, and that is why some elements within the PDP Governors’ Forum are trying to bring in former President Goodluck Jonathan. Like in their original plan, the governor of Bauchi would be his running mate. Jonathan has not agreed to the request. Whichever way, PDP would be difficult for Peter Obi to navigate through.
So, what next for Obi? He would probably remain in the Labour Party. That also is very dicey. The party is divided and nobody is sure which faction would eventually be legalized. So, Obi may likely run for president under the Labour Party or he looks for another political platform to realize his ambition.
Besides, Obi is not the candidate he was in 2023. The variables are different. What made Obi a very strong candidate in 2023 are no longer there. The first one is the EndSARS movement. The EndSARS situation and its aftermath galvanized the young people like it had never happened before. They were angry with the system and were willing to make it known. So, they needed a platform to channel their anger and saw a messiah in Peter Obi. That was what led to the birth of the Obidient movement which was a political miracle of sorts. Overtime, that support had waned.
There was also the agitation for Biafra and Nnamdi Kanu-instigated uprising. The group was so effective that it succeeded in instilling fear and compliance in the minds of people of Southeast. Because of the support Kanu’s group received and the concurrent agitation for a president of Southeast extraction, no politician in the Southeast could come out and support any other candidate except Peter Obi. While politicians told their supporters to vote for their different parties, they all supported Obi during the presidential election. That was why Peter Obi had over 90 percent of the votes cast in the presidential election in all the Southeast states.
There was also the Muslim/Muslim ticket issue. The Christian community felt neglected and mobilized their members against the APC ticket. Leading Christian leaders campaigned openly for Obi from the pulpit. The Christian community saw it as a war of survival. So, Obi won in the Christian communities, especially in the North.
Meanwhile, all these variables are no longer as they were in 2023. Then, add the demand of the Obedient movement now. They want Obi to be president not as vice president to anybody. If, for example, Peter Obi decides to be vice to Atiku in ADC, the Obidient movement would move elsewhere.
In 2023, those who supported Obi did not transfer that support to other people on the ticket. On the same election day that Obi won in several states, Labour Party candidates for the senate and house of representatives were not successful.
So, history may repeat itself. We are likely to have several candidates in 2027 competing for the presidency with Tinubu. If that is the case, which is most likely, Tinubu would win because, like it happened in 2023, the votes would be shared and Tinubu would have the majority share. He may even win more votes than he had in 2023.
