Experts and economists yesterday disagreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over its upward review of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection, saying the projection is not realistic.
The IMF had announced that its Executive Board has concluded the 2025 Article IV consultation with Nigeria, projecting a 3.4 percent expansion in the country’s real Growth Domestic Product (GDP) for 2025.
The IMF’s Article IV consultation is a routine assessment of a country’s economic performance and policy framework, providing evaluations and recommendations for improvement.
Daily Trust reported that On April 22 2025, the IMF projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3 percent in 2025, down from the 3.2 percent forecast in October 2024.
The IMF in the report released on Wednesday commended the recently signed four tax reform Bills by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
According to the statement, the IMF “commended the authorities on advancing the tax reform bill, an important step towards enhancing revenue mobilization and creating fiscal space for development spending, while preserving debt sustainability.”
IMF Executive Board Assessment, further hailed reforms in the foreign exchange market that supported price discovery and liquidity.
“The CBN, under the leadership of Governor Olayemi Cardoso, dismantled the long-standing multiple exchange-rate regime, replacing it with a “willing-buyer, willing-seller” framework supported by a digital trading platform (B-Match).
“Gross and net international reserves increased in 2024, with a strong current account surplus and improved portfolio inflows The FX premium, or gap between official and parallel markets, has fallen from over 60 percent to below 3 percent. FX inflows have surged to $6.9 billion in Q1 2025, and external reserves climbed to a peak of $40.9 billion at the end of 2024, providing over eight months of import–well above benchmark thresholds.
“Reforms to the FX market and foreign exchange interventions have brought stability to the naira,” the IMF noted.
“In January 2025, Nigeria successfully returned to the Eurobond market, its first issue in four years reflecting a strengthened investor confidence and a resumption of portfolio inflows.” the Fund noted
The IMF further commended the CBN current recapitalization efforts for Nigerian Banks.
The statement further stated, “Directors recognized actions to strengthen the banking system, including the ongoing process of increasing banks’ minimum capital. They welcomed the authorities’ efforts to boost financial inclusion and promote capital market development, while emphasizing the importance of moving to a robust risk‑based supervision for mortgage and consumer lending schemes as well as the fintech and crypto sectors.”
Minister, CBN Governor hail report
Reflecting on the IMF report, CBN Governor Cardoso stated that “At a time of global uncertainty, this assessment reaffirms that responsible, forward-looking policy choices matter. It affirms that Nigeria is regaining credibility, anchoring expectations, and laying the foundation for inclusive, long-term growth.
It is both an encouragement to stay the course, and a reminder that resilience and prosperity require continued discipline and vision.” he added.
Similarly, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun while reacting to the development commended the IMF’s for recognizing the Federal Government’s ongoing reform efforts and the progress achieved over the past two years.
A statement by Mohammed Manga, Director Press at the Finance ministry quoted tha minister saying that “These reforms have contributed to notable improvements in Nigeria’s fiscal and external positions, bolstering investor confidence and strengthening the resilience of the economy,”
The Minister also welcomed the Fund’s acknowledgement of advancements in the agricultural sector, particularly increased food production, which has contributed to moderating inflation.
“As of May 2025, headline inflation eased to 22.9%, while food inflation declined to 21.4%—both improvements from the higher levels recorded during the IMF mission.
“IMF’s positive outlook, which affirms that Nigeria’s economic reforms have positioned the country to better withstand external shocks,” Edun added.
Experts differ
Economist, Dr. Marcel Okeke faulted the report which he described as “unfounded and unrealistic.”
According to him, the tax reform the report talked about has not taken effect. He stated that the parameters used by the IMF in reviewing up the projection were faulty.
He said, “First I will say the projection is unrealistic. The tax reform they are mentioning has not come into effect. The President signed the Bills a few days ago. So there is no way the government will start implementing a new tax law.
“As they are releasing this projection, the World Bank has just released another one that shows Nigerians are getting poorer in terms of poverty. How can more Nigerians getting poor give rise to better GDP growth? How can that happen?
The economist raised concerns about the declining crude oil prices and the low production volume by Nigeria.
Daily Trust checks yesterday indicated that Brent Crude sold for $68.27 dollars per barrel as the price volatility continues, threatening the federal government revenue projection.
The 2025 budget was benchmarked at $75 per barrel and 2.2m oil production volume while the crude oil output is still around 1.6m, according to competent authorities.
These developments, Okeke pointed out, are genuine causes for concern which fly in the face of the IMF projection.
He said the current level of public debt at N149 trillion as of March 2025, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO) does not bode well for improved economic growth as projected by the IMF.
“Look at the level of inflation. The inflation level at 22.97% is still high. In developed countries, it is always around one or two or three per cent. In other words, the purchasing power has dropped so badly. Their report doesn’t have substance,” he said.
Professor Emeritus of Economics, Ndubisi Nwokoma said the projection has a question mark with the low purchasing power, the highly bureaucratic public sector and the insecurity which is threatening food security.
“In my view, a number of times IMF projections do not work. They often don’t have functional projections. They almost always revise them and that puts a question mark on what their projections are,” he said.
“I don’t see any serious change that would warrant the projection. The public sector is still ridden with bureaucracy. There is a high level of insecurity. Secondly, there is a low level of purchasing power. The level of real income in the country has not increased significantly. The purchasing power is still very low. The government sector is highly bureaucratic.
“The manufacturing sector is not doing much. I don’t think there is serious light at the end of the tunnel.”
‘Why IMF may be right’
Dr. Muda Yusuf, economist and Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE) said the IMF might be right given the fact that its focus is largely on the macroeconomic variables.
“To that extent, one will agree with the IMF because if you look at the macro, most of those reforms are necessary and having some impact at the macroeconomic level – the subsidy reform, forex reform and now tax reforms. In the electricity reform, we have not made much progress,” he said.
However, he stated that the IMF does not “reckon very well with welfare issues and the social cost of the reforms.”
“The social dimension of the economy is often not reckoned with by the IMF and that is why many people have issues with the IMF because the poverty situation is still a challenge and then productivity issue is still a major issue, I am talking of cost of production, cost of logistics, they are still very big issue,” he said.
